As I have mentioned- I am writing a book… and with the framework that I have produced, I am going to start posting here to get your feedback on this material. Together we will produce a better book, and analyze deeper together what is happening. I will post every few days on how events that are happening in the world line up with the conceptual shifts that I am seeing. Join me in this conversation by either commenting on these post, or emailing me.
One of the biggest conceptual shifts that I see driving the entrepreneurial opportunities of the future – what I call “Exponential Entrepreneurship”- is the concept of the super-empowerment of the individual. Author John Robb writes about this concept in his book Brave New War, although he writes about it in terms of being a “global guerrilla” in a negative sense… but there is also an equally empowering opportunity for entrepreneurs of the world. Today’s news represents a tectonic shift showing the “super-empowerment of the individual/ entrepreneur”- here is an example of what the future is brining:
Trent Reznor, of the band Nine Inch Nails along with Radiohead and Oasis have just announced that they are not going to release their music through traditional channels, but directly to listeners side-stepping the major recording labels that they have utilized in the past. Trent Reznor released the following statement on his blog two days ago:
Hello everyone. I’ve waited a LONG time to be able to make the
following announcement: as of right now Nine Inch Nails is a totally
free agent, free of any recording contract with any label. I have
been under recording contracts for 18 years and have watched the
business radically mutate from one thing to something inherently very
different and it gives me great pleasure to be able to finally have a
direct relationship with the audience as I see fit and appropriate.
Look for some announcements in the near future regarding 2008.
Exciting times, indeed.
Certainly, other artist, including my friend Sean, have been releasing music directly to their friends and listeners over the last few years… but what these announcements forebode is a major shift disrupting the existing music industry, in the favor of individuals (the artist, the listeners)…. creating a more intimate relationship between the two. This ties directly into what the Wizard of Ads Roy Williams has been saying since 2003:
But in the waning years of each generation, “alpha voices” ring out as prophets in the wilderness, providing a glimpse of the new generation that will soon emerge like a baby chick struggling to break out of its shell.
Except Trent Reznor, Radiohead, and Oasis’ message is no longer a little chick struggling to break out of its shell. Alpha voices no longer are “ringing out”… they are storming the castles of the existing order.
Entrepreneurs of the world should look to these trends for opportunities abound as industries of all types start being restructured. This is not just a passing fad, but represents the way that we all will be doing business in the short future. Entrepreneurs recognizing and harnessing these trends will be empowered, while those who fight these trends will suffer.
As I understand it, what Radiohead and the others are doing is offering their music directly to consumers AT WHATEVER PRICE THE CUSTOMER WANTS TO PAY – including no price at all. While this obviously creates tremendous buzz and airply — and some hardcore fans might be happy to part with their money — they also are foregoing all traditional revenue streams such as royalties and copyrights. So why do they not believe that the market, if offered something for free, will opt to take it for free? In other words, is this laissez-faire approach truly viable as a business model? Very few companies, entrepreneurs or artists have the luxury to approach their business this way — so while NIN, Radiohead and the others may indeed be prophets crying in the wilderness just now, won’t they soon be searching frantically for locusts and honey to sustain themselves?
What is the value of a brand-name entity going beyond the bleeding edge of innovation if few others can afford to follow them into their social nirvana? Can you really argue that this is a tipping point, or is it more likely a freakish aberration?
One note of caution: Trent Reznor, Radiohead, and Oasis are all established acts who became established through the mechanisms of the recording industry as we know it. It’s not yet clear whether the Internet can provide the means for an unknown, up-and-coming band to build enough of a fan base to survive and thrive on its own without a record label. I hope it can, but I’m not seeing it yet.
Thank you MJ and Michael for your post. I think that I have an answer for both of you… right now the industry is being shaped by revolutionary forces, not just evolutionary forces… it is in times of great change and great re-distribution that I think anyone can shift the dynamics in their favor- whether it be Trent Reznor- or it be some unknown artist… the main thing that I see happening is that there is a shift- where many of the incumbent companies are actually trying to resist the shift… If they were not trying to resist it- I bet that there would be less opportunity for the unknown artist… but as I mentioned in the original post- even my buddy Sean is publishing his music… but his full time job is being a software engineer. Little to no cost for publishing will allow artist to give away their music (much like we all as kids use to bootleg it anyway… ) The artist that give it away (even at zero cost) will be able to sell other merchandise- and create real revenue opportunities… Or in the case of Sean- he publishes because he wants to- his underlying behavior is social- not market driven.
This social behavior (publishing music for one’s friends consumption) is disrupting the existing market based companies… Trent Reznor and Oasis and Radiohead are just getting onto the bandwagon that is already leaving the station.
Thank you both for your comments!